Sub-theme 21: Heuristics & Simple Rules: Decision-making under Uncertainity in Dealing with the Unexpected

Kathleen M. Eisenhardt, Stanford University, USA
Madeleine Rauch, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark
Gerd Gigerenzer, Max-Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany
Session I: Thursday, July 04, 11:00 to 12:30, CMB - SR 2
Welcome & Introduction
Chair: Madeleine Rauch (CBS)
... by the convenors of the sub-theme, incl. Keynote by Professor Kathleen Eisenhardt (Stanford)
Session II: Thursday, July 04, 14:00 to 15:30
- Parallel Stream -
Parallel Stream A: Heuristics & Strategy I - Room: CMB - SR 2
Chair: Madeleine Rauch (CBS)
Mohit Mehta and Patrick Reinmoeller
Exploring the simple rule of team-level responsiveness
Fabrice L. Cavarretta
From buzz to heuristics: Epistemic properties of socially calculated managerial rules
Marcel F. Volland
Developing the theory of heuristics chains: The simple rules that are fundamental to emergent strategies pursued by middle management
Parallel Stream B: Heuristics in Different Settings - Room: CMB - SR 6
Chair: Joana Geraldi (CBS)
David W. Versailles, Valérie Mérindol, Evelyne Rouby and Catherine Thomas
Heedful interrelating in three modes: Reliability versus performance in French fighter pilot squadrons
Yevgen Bogodistov and Jürgen Moormann
The role of individual action dispositions in heuristics interpretation and execution
Stefano Pascucci, Domenico Dentoni, Alessia Lombardi, Valentina Materia and Luigi Cembalo
Do angels have feelings? Decision-making under extreme uncertainty in the early stage of business venturing
Session III: Friday, July 05, 09:00 to 10:30
- Parallel Stream -
Parallel Stream A: Heuristics & Cognition - Room: CMB - SR 2
Chair: Eugene Sadler-Smith (Surrey)
Verena Stingl and Joana Geraldi Stäblein
Cognitive processes of risk and opportunity identification: A problem-solving perspective
Andrew Sarta
Cognition, market velocity, and attentional shifts toward new technology: A multi-level study of FinTech’s emergence
Malo Joncquemat and Pascal Aurégan
How can decision-makers elaborate simple selection rules based on their cognition? Evidence from a case study
Parallel Stream B: Heuristics & Resources - Room: CMB - SR 6
Chair: Wolfgang Guettel (JKU)
Russell Manfield, Martina Eberl, Lance Newey and Peter Eberl
Navigating trouble: The emergence of heuristics with unstable resources
Thomas Simnadis, Tim Coltman, Yvonne Mathews and Siggi Gudergan
Unpacking the resource allocation decision under uncertainty
Ntorina Antoni, Sharon Dolmans and Isabelle Reymen
Strategic decision-making in public organizations: Balancing stability and change under uncertainty by flixing
Session IV: Friday, July 05, 11:00 to 12:30
- Parallel Stream -
Parallel Stream A: Heuristics & Strategy II - Room: CMB - SR 2
Chair: Patrick Reinmoeller (Cranfield)
Shubha Patvardhan and J Ramachandran
Exploring the microfoundations of shaping-oriented strategies
Angelika Schmidt, Helmut Kasper and Herbert Pietschmann
The silver bullet of strategic change management decisions in uncertainty and unexpected
Johanna Gruenauer and Wolfgang Güttel
Illuminating the core of capabilities – Strategically relevant information embedded in elementary heuristics
Parallel Stream B: Decision-Making under Pressure and Uncertainity - Room: CMB - SR 6
Chair: Maud Pindard-Lejarraga (IE)
Neringa Kalpokaite and Ivana Radivojevic
Leading a country through change and uncertainty: An analysis of political leaders’ decision-making strategies during a transition to democracy in Spain and Lithuania
Monica Y. Naime S. Henkel
Bridging Crisis Management and Policy Transfer: A cognitive approach
Joanne Gardner Le Gars, Sophie le Bris and Dominique-Philippe Martin
Decision-making under uncertainty in the context of time pressure and critical irreversibility: Bridging heuristics and meta rules
Session V: Friday, July 05, 14:00 to 15:30
- Parallel Stream -
Parallel Stream A: Voicing Heuristics - Room: CMB - SR 2
Chair: Tyler Wry (Wharton)
Radu Atanasiu
From insight to proverb, from proverb to policy. How managers generate, articulate, and share heuristics
Prins Marcus Valiant Lantz
Do not try to argue… The affect heuristic and argument by example in uncertain decision-making
Simone Guercini
Heuristics as tales from the field: The problem of scope
Parallel Stream B: Heuristics & Different Theoretical Approaches - Room: CMB - SR 6
Chair: Gerd Gigerenzer
Aleksi Niittymies and Kalle Pajunen
The experience threshold: Non-linear development of usable heuristics in foreign market entry
José Lejarraga and Maud Pindard-Lejarraga
Bounded rationality in management research: The poor cousin of full-rationality? A discussion of the implications of a misused concept
Glenn Kristiansen
Using a numerical benchmark to inhibit random anchoring in strategic decision making
Session VI: Saturday, July 06, 09:00 to 10:30
- Parallel Stream -
Parallel Stream A: Heuristics & Categories - Room: CMB - SR 2
Chair: Verena Stingl (DTU)
Tyler Wry and Adam Castor
Categories, search, and the influence of patented innovations
Lena J. Jaspersen and Sanaz Sigaroudi
Categorizing medical devices: How heuristics and routines drive categorization processes
Johannes Schmalisch
The role of heuristics in category-based inference decisions
Parallel Stream B: Ignorance, Fraud & Organizational Failure - Room: CMB - SR 6
Chair: Fabrice Cavarretta (Essec)
Joris Berns and Tal Simons
Risky decision-making and the threat of organizational failure: Examining the role of formal versus psychological ownership
Louis Vuarin
A process perspective on functional ignorance: The initiation phase in secret organizations
Maria Ilieva and Jin-Ichiro Yamada
Interactions on organizational, group and individual level for strategic decision making after a fraud
Session VII: Saturday, July 06, 11:00 to 12:30, CMB - SR 2
Paper Discussion – and Wrap-up
Chair: Madeleine Rauch (CBS)
Cinla Akinci and Eugene Sadler-Smith
‘Intuition-based inquiry’ and its implications for decision-making in organisations
Open discussion, wrap-up and closing keynote by Professor Gerd Gigerenzer